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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.