How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he said.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in August produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

James Alvarez
James Alvarez

A seasoned poker strategist with over a decade of experience in competitive online gaming and coaching.