NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Season Finale.
Entering the last weekend of the NFL regular season, just two postseason berths remain open. However, far more is on the line, such as the coveted top seeds in each conference and four divisional crowns.
NFL schedulers have crafted a dramatic finale, with the final two postseason places to be decided in a pair of winner-take-all contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The victor of the Steelers-Ravens contest will secure the #4 spot and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. At the same time, the Bills and Los Angeles are set as wildcard teams.
Houston need a victory coupled with a Jaguars loss to climb from fifth to third. The Broncos will secure the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a loss could pave the way for New England or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The NFC South is up for grabs by the winner of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, earning them the fourth seed. Notably, Carolina could still win the division even with a loss, contingent on other results.
The Packers are set at the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, though, is the clash for the NFC's top seed between Seattle and the 49ers, with a first-round bye and home-field advantage hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in each conference receives a crucial first-round bye and home-field advantage for the duration of the postseason.
During the Wild Card round, the other six qualified teams compete: the second seed plays the seventh, third hosts sixth, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the Divisional Round, the top seeds join the fray, facing the weakest remaining seed. The conference title games are then hosted by the highest seed, highlighting the immense importance of securing that top spot.
AFC North Decider: A Brutal Finale
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This fierce rivalry reaches its climax in the final game of the regular season. The divisional title and a play-off berth on the line, this is a true elimination situation.
The Steelers have been inconsistent this season, while the Ravens started poorly but remain in the hunt. Key injuries may prove critical: The Steelers may be without star receiver DK Metcalf, while the Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson is questionable with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry could be the difference-maker for the Ravens in what promises to be a physical, defensive struggle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the NFC West is at stake when the Seahawks visits the 49ers. The winner claims the NFC's top seed and the road to the Super Bowl that it provides.
This matchup pits an explosive 49ers offense against a stingy Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy returned, the 49ers have been the league's top offense. Conversely, the Seahawks' unit is rated second best in the NFL.
The Seahawks' quarterback their passer must avoid mistakes that have haunted him this year. The team that comes out on top gains a huge edge for the playoff run.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this game with strong form. Tampa Bay have dropped seven of eight, while the Panthers have missed chances to clinch the division.
For Carolina it's straightforward: win and they're in. For Tampa Bay, the situation is more complex. Even with a win, they require help from the Falcons-Saints game to claim the divisional championship.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A win over a Chargers team likely to rest key players gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the opportunity arises for the Patriots. A New England victory combined with a Broncos loss would hand the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They need a win and losses by the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an unlikely ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jaguars loss could see them passed by the Texans in the AFC South.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
