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Having scored nine times in his opening seven fixtures, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has kicked off the season on fire.

Even though this doesn't represent his best start to a season - he found the net 11 times in his first seven games in the 2022-23 season and ten in the previous campaign - it nonetheless positions him three strikes clear in the early running for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this not one of his nine strikes have been penalties renders it particularly impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Certainly, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is so heavily favored for the award so quickly into the term.

Firstly, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, just as importantly, the number and quality of opportunities he's receiving.

Secondly, the modest opening his regular challengers for the honor have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A player's expected goals number (xG) indicates how many goals a top-flight footballer has typically netted from the total and standard of chances he has had.

This doesn't represent a number randomly picked by data analysts, but by English top-flight records.

Upon reviewing at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this campaign from normal play, the Norwegian striker is getting so many more good opportunities to convert than any other player.

Actually, even if Haaland didn't excel at finishing chances than anyone else in the competition, he would still have scored more than twice as many goals as all other players.

Scoring Situation Assessment

That is demonstrated by examining the quantity and caliber of chances that attackers have encountered in the English first division so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this season, twelve additional compared to any other player.

That is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had in fact attempted more non-penalty shots at this stage in the previous two campaigns (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

However, what's unprecedented even for him is the caliber of opportunities he has had this campaign. His efforts have had an xG value of 0.27 on average.

What that figure means is that footballers have traditionally scored the efforts he's registered at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Regarding attackers registering at minimum ten attempts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to convert per attempt - due to a several close-range conversions against the Hammers and Seagulls.

The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

Essentially, the scoring situations he has had in this campaign have been considerably more favorable to score from in a reorganised City team than those at the opening of last term.

Past Performance Analysis

Starting a season so impressively is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. After seven games last term he had netted ten times - a quartet more than every other footballer and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Anfield star who claimed the top scorer award with 29 conversions, seven additional compared to the Etihad attacker.

This season, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has registered half as many goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this stage last season.

Actually this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It isn't only Salah who has opened quietly either. If we look at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has scored as many goals as the additional ten attackers combined so far.

Be it because of fitness issues - multiple prominent forwards - long-running transfer sagas in one particular striker's situation or merely because their sides have underperformed (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's potential challengers in the battle for the scoring title have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Although the Norwegian appears the obvious frontrunner for the English top scorer award, what about the Continental scoring award that is presented to the player with the most goals in Europe's top-five leagues?

That contest is significantly tighter at this initial phase because two elite attackers have also started in superb fashion, with eleven and nine strikes each.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the three without having taken any penalties renders him the likely winner.

Yet given that the English and French stars are two of the best converters in European soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the competition remains open.